US SANCTIONS PAK ARMY CHIEF

 

LT COL NOEL ELLIS

 

27/III/2025

 

Following events in Pakistan has become my second nature. After becoming a veteran, I prefer to read/listen to discussions about Pak which is available on the net and their social media.

 

Pakistan has been caught between the ‘devil and the deep sea’. Internally, various insurgencies are now taking an alarming shape and beating the daylights of the Paki Armed Forces. Externally, they are being sidelined, ignored, boycotted and even sanctioned for what they do or they don’t do to run their country.

 

Paki government is still in discussion about why India is causing all this disturbance, instead of getting their own house in order. It is high time they focus within and stop comparing themselves with India. No point at all. Like we say, “ye muh aur masoor ki dal”.

 

Frankly, the turmoil within the country has reached a stage where they just need a trigger and all hell will break loose. There are inputs of mass desertion in the rank and file of the Paki armed forces, besides insubordination by their personnel. There is also news that some officers have openly given a threat through a letter to the Pak Army chief to resign or face consequences. How far are these hearsays true, that time will tell? Suffice to say, there cannot be smoke unless there is fire.

 

The latest being that the Pak Army Chief has been put on a sanctions list by the US. As it is, Pak-US ties are on the brink. Aid to Pak in most forms has been stopped or reduced. Above that, it is now in public domain that a bill has been tabled in the US to shake up the Paki Army chief from his ‘gahflat ki neend”.

 

Does the world now understand why US has targeted the present Army Chief, who has already got his tenure extended till 2027. Because, Uncle Sam knows who calls the shots in Pak. The last elections were rigged the whole world knows, the parliament and parliamentarians are defunct is no secret. So, the US has aimed bang at the bull’s eye.

 

Though I do not use AI much but then I thought why not use Grok, one of the latest AI tools to find our about a few things which may have implications on India as well regarding these sanctions. They have given 180 days for Pak to mend its ways or else face the consequences. It is immaterial whether the sanctions come through or not which is a long drawn process.

 

This is what Grok told me about the sanctions and I am placing them verbatim. Having gone through it, I tend to agree with what it had to say. Here goes……

 

“The sanctions proposed against Pakistan's Army Chief, General Asim Munir, stem from a bipartisan bill introduced in the US Congress on March 25, 2025, titled the "Pakistan Democracy Act." This legislation, put forward by Representatives Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) and Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), accuses Munir of "knowingly engaging in the wrongful persecution and imprisonment of political opponents," notably former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

 

Below is an analysis of the reasons for these proposed sanctions, along with their potential implications, fallout, and ramifications for India and the world.

 

Reasons for Sanctions

 

The primary catalyst for the proposed sanctions is the alleged political persecution orchestrated by Pakistan's military under Munir's leadership. Imran Khan, ousted in 2022 via a no-confidence vote and arrested in August 2023 on corruption charges, is labelled a "political prisoner" by the bill's proponents. His supporters argue these charges are fabricated, with the military backing them to prevent his political resurgence. The bill mandates the US government to identify individuals involved in such persecution within 180 days and impose penalties like visa bans and entry restrictions under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. This reflects a broader US intent to pressure ‘Pakistan into restoring democratic norms’ and releasing political detainees, aligning with American rhetoric on human rights and democracy.

 

Implications

 

US-Pakistan Relations: The sanctions could strain an already fragile relationship. Pakistan has historically been a key US ally, especially post-9/11, but ties have deteriorated due to differing priorities in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s growing alignment with China. Targeting Munir personally risks alienating Pakistan’s powerful military, which has dominated the country’s politics since 1947, potentially pushing Islamabad further from Washington’s orbit.

 

Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics: The move might embolden domestic opposition to the military, including Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, amplifying civil unrest. However, the military’s entrenched power suggests it could double down on repression rather than concede, especially given its resistance to foreign interference.

 

Sanctions’ Effectiveness: Experts like Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador, doubt the US will follow through, citing Khan’s anti-American stance and the strategic need to maintain some cooperation with Pakistan. The bill allows sanctions to be lifted if Pakistan restores civilian democracy, but the military’s grip makes this unlikely in the short term.

 

Fallout

 

Pakistan’s Military Response: The military might perceive this as an affront to national sovereignty, rallying domestic support by framing it as foreign meddling. This could deepen its reliance on China, which has not criticized Pakistan’s internal affairs and offers economic and military backing via initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

 

Regional Power Shifts: A weakened US-Pakistan axis could accelerate China’s influence in South Asia, complicating the regional balance. Pakistan might also seek closer ties with Russia or Iran, diversifying its alliances amid Western pressure.

 

Political Polarization: Khan’s supporters could gain momentum internationally, but his anti-US rhetoric—claiming Washington orchestrated his ouster—might undermine the bill’s credibility among American policymakers wary of backing a populist with divergent interests.

 

Ramifications for India

 

Strategic Advantage: India, a growing US partner, might benefit from a rift between Washington and Islamabad. The US has recently eased restrictions on India’s nuclear energy sector while sanctioning Pakistan’s missile program (December 2024), signalling a tilt toward New Delhi. This could enhance India’s leverage in countering Pakistan-backed militancy in Kashmir.

 

Regional Stability Concerns: However, an unstable Pakistan under sanctions might escalate border tensions or proxy conflicts with India to deflect domestic pressure. Pakistan’s military has historically used the "Indian threat" narrative to justify its dominance, and this could intensify.

 

Nuclear Risks: Pakistan’s pursuit of long-range missiles, cited in separate US sanctions, remains a worry. Any perceived threat to its military leadership might accelerate its nuclear and missile programs, heightening risks for India, which shares a contentious border and a history of conflict.

 

Ramifications for the World

 

Global Precedent: Sanctioning a military chief for political repression could set a precedent for targeting other authoritarian figures, though its rarity—compared to broader state sanctions—limits its immediate global impact. It reflects a selective US approach, given its silence on allies with similar records.

 

China-US Rivalry: The sanctions could exacerbate tensions in the US-China rivalry. Pakistan’s pivot to China might bolster Beijing’s strategic footprint in South Asia, challenging US influence and complicating efforts to contain China’s rise.

 

Counterterrorism Cooperation: Pakistan’s role in countering terrorism, historically tied to US aid, could weaken. A fallout might hinder intelligence-sharing or operations against groups like the Taliban, affecting global security, particularly in Afghanistan.

 

Nuclear Proliferation: The focus on Munir coincides with US concerns over Pakistan’s missile advancements, seen as a potential threat beyond South Asia. A destabilized Pakistan might become less predictable, raising proliferation risks in a world already wary of nuclear escalation.

 

Conclusion

 

The proposed sanctions on General Munir highlight US frustration with Pakistan’s military overreach but face significant hurdles in altering its behaviour. For India, they offer strategic opportunities tempered by stability risks, while globally, they underscore shifting alliances and the limits of coercive diplomacy. The fallout hinges on Pakistan’s response—whether it doubles down militarily or bows to pressure—though its history suggests resilience over capitulation. As of March 27, 2025, the bill’s fate in Congress remains uncertain, but its ripple effects are already reshaping regional and international discourse”.

 

What intrigues me the most that there is utmost silence and no reaction whatsoever from the Park Army Chief or the DG ISPR on this issue. For me something is brewing within as the bubbles of the boil are yet to erupt.

 

Will the bill get passed against the Pak Army Chief? I wonder!!!!!

 

JAI HIND
©® NOEL ELLIS