LT COL NOEL ELLIS
02/V/2025
Since Pahalgam, a lot of water
has flown in the Indus and the other five rivers. War has been declared in the
news rooms. Veterans took on the cudgels to disseminate Pakistan in a snap of a
finger. Anchors became Army Commanders; news reporters were boots on ground.
Who won? Obviously, India.
In this sweltering heat, Pakistan
mobilised lock stock and barrel to the borders for obvious reasons. They
anticipate a kinetic retaliation by India.
Surprisingly, the Baluchi people,
people of KPK, Sindh and rebel militant groups are silent. They should have
played merry hell with these exposed troops. Nevertheless!
What got me thinking were two
issues. The suspension of the Indus water treaty by India and reciprocally, the
suspension of the Simla agreement by Pakistan. Interestingly, they have severe
repercussions, more on Pakistan than India. I will not go into the contents of
these treaties as we all are already aware.
India has got the ability to turn
the tap off or on, depending on our convenience and planning to drown or parch
the Paki side. In the dry season, create a severe drought and in the rainy
season flood them further. The agrarian society would cry hoarse. Crops &
fishing would be affected drastically. The existing food crisis would spiral.
Then comes the chaos in their
electricity production. All the dams producing electricity can be choked. That
is why most of the Paki power stations run on fossil fuels. Probably they
anticipated that. How much electricity are they producing from nuclear facilities
is miniscule? These guys in the guise of producing nuclear power there make
bombs instead, which they keep threatening India with.
Pakistan has a very elaborate
canal system. Both for irrigation and defence purposes. Besides, they have
their rivers and canals interlinked to divert water, especially during floods.
Their Ditch Cum Bund which they have dug purely for defence purposes is also
fed by this water. At places they have a double DCB. Naturally, they fear an
invasion by the Mechanised forces of India.
What if the rivers are dried up?
Firstly, their river beds which are as it is dry would further dry out. This
would facilitate the armoured columns to go uninterrupted, without using much
bridging equipment and water crossing expedients deep inside Pakistan.
Once the canals get dried up. The
mines and obstacles laid within those canals and DCBs would get exposed.
Sarkanda which grows freely would dry out, exposing what dangers lie in those
water bodies. If one can see it, one can remove it. The gradient on the other
side would be an issue but our Mech Forces are capable of climbing and
negotiating those slopes.
Nuclear facilities need a lot of
water for cooling. The Karachi facility which is way downstream uses sea water,
but what about the rest? If there is no water, there would be no cooling thus
jeopardising those facilities. Would Pakistan be able to sustain the production
of fissile material for war purposes? Your guess is as good as mine.
If you search the net, various
capacities of the dams, barrages, canals, and rivers are given in black and
white. The implications of drying out a river are clearly mentioned. How would
Pakistan sustain then? Even thermal power production needs a lot of water for
steam. There could be a total black out in Pakistan with one turn of the tap.
Turning off water will be called
an “act of war” said the Paki Defence Minister vehemently. We shall bomb the
Indian Dams to get our dues of water, he said. I think we should wait for that
to happen. Paki Ministers can keep having bottled water. We will leave “chullu
bhar pani” for their fauj “doob marne ke liye”. Their awam won’t have water to
wash their backsides.
Water is an essential commodity
for desert operations. With dried up canals and rivers, Mech forces would have
to cater for it. Engineers, please cater for it.
The government has given a free
hand to the three service chiefs I heard. So, a request to the news channels,
please calm down. Veterans, hold your guns and dear civilians have patience.
We need to wait for the appropriate time. Operation Vijay when Kargil
happened and Operation Parakram when attack on parliament happened has taught
us many lessons to get into war mode.
If one has decided to go to war
with all the wherewithal, then planning, preparation, time and place of attack
and the logistics has to be meticulously worked out. When we commit ourselves,
it has to be for a win. Let us wrench them first and then hang them on a line
to dry.
This is a way to sort out this
rouge state. Do you agree? I wonder!!!!!!!
JAI HIND
©® NOEL ELLIS
Very nice analysis Noel.
ReplyDeleteThank you
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